Croatian weather experts release winter forecast

Maksimir Park, Zagreb (Photo: Kristina Kutleša/Unsplash)

The Croatian State Hydrometeorological Institute (DHMZ) has today released its long-term forecast for the upcoming winter.

It appears we are in for another winter similar to those we have grown accustomed to in recent years. Below is an overview of the forecast made by DHMZ.

Despite various claims about the forthcoming winter, the available forecasting data from the DHMZ’s Sector for Weather and Marine Analysis and Forecasts, in collaboration with international experts in the field, suggests that the winter of 2024/2025 is likely to be yet another above-average warm season (compared to the 1991–2020 climate norm).

For all three winter months—December, January, and February—there is a strong signal indicating above-average temperatures, with a high probability of this forecast materialising.

However, the positive temperature deviation may be less pronounced in January 2025. During cold air incursions, which are expected at times, temperatures could temporarily drop to or below the seasonal average.

As for seasonal precipitation, an amount close to the average is forecasted, with moderate confidence in this prediction.

There are no significant signals of major deviations in monthly precipitation levels for any of the winter months, although there is a slightly increased probability of surplus precipitation along the Adriatic coast in February.

Predicting precipitation on a seasonal scale is much more complex than forecasting temperature, resulting in lower reliability.

Consequently, periods of dry weather may alternate with shorter intervals of heavy precipitation. For more precise information about the amount or type of precipitation, it is advisable to follow short-term forecasts (daily, semi-weekly, or weekly).

The seasonal forecast aligns with the predictions of the Southeast European Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) and the Mediterranean and North Africa Climate Forum, of which Croatia is a member.