Croatia can still progress with two points. Here is what needs to happen

Luka Modrić

After their last-second 1-1 draw tonight with Italy in Leipzig, Croatia are now forced to await the outcomes of Groups C and F to find out if they have advanced to the Round of 16 at Euro 2024.

Despite the Croatian team ending the group stage in third place behind Spain and Italy with only two points, the Round of 16 is still within reach, at least theoretically.

Spain’s 1-0 victory over Albania has created the first prerequisite for this to happen.

Four of the best third-placed teams will advance to the Round of 16, meaning at least two third-placed teams must rank lower than Croatia in the final standings.

Group C

A draw between Slovenia and Serbia was favourable for Croatia, while the same result between England and Denmark was not. The “Three Lions” lead the group with four points, while the Slovenians and Danes each have two, and the Serbs have one point.

Several possible combinations could result in the third-placed team in this group being ranked below Croatia.

One scenario involves Denmark defeating Serbia and leaving them with one point, and then England needing to beat Slovenia by a large margin so that the Slovenians would have a worse goal difference than Croatia’s.

Another scenario includes Serbia beating Denmark by at least three goals and England securing a significant victory over Slovenia, which would leave the Slovenians and Danes at the bottom of the group with two points and a very negative goal difference.

Group C

Group F

If Group C concludes as we expect, Croatia will then pin their hopes on the outcomes in this group.

A draw between the Czech Republic and Georgia was favourable for the ‘Vatreni’ since both teams now have one point after two matches.

In the final round, Georgia plays Portugal, and the Czech Republic faces Turkey, with both teams being underdogs in these matches. If they lose, they will remain on one point, and the third-placed team from this group will rank below Croatia.

Group F

So, for Croatia to progress with two points, the following needs to happen:

a) Denmark must beat Serbia by any margin, or Serbia must beat Denmark by at least three goals.
b) England must beat Slovenia by at least three goals.
c) Turkey must beat the Czech Republic.
d) Portugal must beat Georgia.

The theory of progressing from third place with two points is a bit of a long shot. Croatia might have to wait until after 11 p.m. on Wednesday to find out if they have advanced.

“Theoretically we have a chance but nothing has gone our way so fat this tournament,” Luka Modrić said after the match.