Croatians in BiH under threat

Bosnia and Herzegovina

By Cole Kinder

The Croatian diaspora needs to understand the threats to the Croatian community in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) rising from our own borders.

On Monday, US Senator Chuck Grassley (Iowa) announced how Serbians and Croatians are attempting to break up the union of Bosnia and Herzegovina through separatist factions.

Other leaders in the US have posted similar content on the situation and now appear to be formulating new plans for the US foreign policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Milorad Dodik is Serb leader in Bosnia supporting separatism Now Bosnian Croat separatists getting into act This is worrying echo of 90s 4 many Iowans who fled separatist violence after war &genocide in 90s It didn’t end well 4 separatists then & won’t now

— Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) March 10, 2025

Similar echoes have been carried by leaders across the Western world, and especially in Islamic and Russian circles who together are the guarantors of the status quo.

All of these actions suggest a change is coming in how the world deals with Bosnia and Herzegovina.

But, the assertion US Senator Grassley and other American leaders make for the Croatians of Bosnia and Herzegovina are not true.

As many Croatians and the diaspora know, the Croatians who want a change to the status quo mainly want either a third entity or a new form of citizenship identification to ensure that when the Croatians of Bosnia and Herzegovina vote in elections, their representatives at the national level such as their president is elected by the Croatian people as with the spirit of the Dayton Agreement.

What US Senator Grassley stated suggests a criminal culpability of the Croatian people, which paints the Croatians as guilty of full-on separatism and yields the moral high-ground to Bosniaks and puts the Croatians at an equal playing field to Serbians as aggressors.

In other words, statements like Senator Grassley’s from across the Western world undermine Croatian interests in the court of public opinion by displaying Croatians of pushing for illegal independence and undermining peace.

For those unfamiliar, Croatians signed a deal with the Bosniaks during the 1990s War to unite the parts both ethnicities ruled in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Later, the Serbian part joined too. 

In these agreements, two important things happened.

One, the country at the national level would have three presidents elected by each ethnicity, as well as an equal number of parliamentary members from each ethnicity.

Two, the country would be split: one part would be the already existing united Croatian and Bosniak part called the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), with federated cantons beneath.

These federated cantons ensure a layer of autonomy for both ethnicities as Bosniaks dominate five of the ten cantons and Croatians dominate three of the ten cantons, with the other two being mixed.

The Serbian part is another entity called the Republika Srpska (RS) and it is practically all Serbian which is why they do not have cantons. There is a split district between both entities as well, but that is a whole other discussion.

Map showing the cantons of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. (Wiki/CCO)

While this seems like a fair split, a loophole has ensued. To vote at the national level, you choose your ethnicity through your entity.

For the Serbians, this means they always elect who they want because nearly all of their entity is Serbian. But, this is not true for Croatians who split their entity with the more numerous Bosniaks.

Many allege that Bosniaks have been registering as Croatians when they vote nationally so they can vote in the Croatian representatives at the national level due to their larger population.

Croatians in the region believe that creating a third entity or creating special more secure Croatian identification would close this loophole and allow the spirit of the Dayton Agreement to continue.

However, the International community has fought against a third entity for the last 20 years. The USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the EU, and NATO fear any internal breakups within Bosnia and Herzegovina would lead to instability and possible war.

Meanwhile, Bosniaks and the Islamic Community have pressed the European Courts to change the laws and status quo of Bosnia and Herzegovina from its federal and split ethnic representative nature to a more unitary like nation with a one person one vote system.

They say the current system goes against democracy and does not allow Bosniaks to have their own country.

The Serbian part have long sought greater autonomy to the point of full independence or a joining with Serbia. Russia is nearly always on the side of the Serbians in this debate.

These latter two proposals both would severely hurt Croatians in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Bosniaks’ desire would most likely eliminate any independence and autonomy of the Croatian community. If accomplished through political Islam, this could further see a rise of Islamism across the Balkans and Europe as a viable solution to problems Muslims across the continent feel they have. 

The Serbians’ desire would likely lead to a similar scenario of Croatians losing autonomy, but it would also extend Serbia’s border with the Republic of Croatia and reignite Serbian nationalists.

Currently, having three ethnicities means that no ethnicity can really rise above the other, but without Serbians, Croatians would be far outnumbered.

Even though Bosniaks may have more control nationally, Croatians still have power at the lower levels due to the status quo. Eroding the status quo would likely lead to the erosion of the cantons where Croatians often have most power. 

Map of Balkan region (Credit: Peter Fitzgerald/ CC BY-SA 3.0)

With the Russia-Ukraine War, and an emergent Turkey, all sides have been emboldened.

The neutral partnerships that elect offices such as the High Representative to oversee the nation as it still responds to the atrocities of the 1990s War has been accused by all sides for bias, eroding its credibility.

Because of this, recent rulings by said neutral arbiters against the Republika Srpska re-emboldened the Serbians’ independence movements, which the Srpska President Dodik became publicly in favor of.

As a result, President Dodik was removed from office and kicked out of the country after a court decision and this has sparked even more separatist plans even from Russia.

Now, Russian-propaganda forces, Russia and Serbia, and the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina appear even closer aligned and have started an information war campaign waged at the other ethnicities.

This information war campaign has existed for a long time, but it has escalated in the last two weeks.

These include the labeling of Croatians and Bosniaks as Nazis, Jihadists, and other terms including accusing both and the wider Western world of “importing homosexual” behavior into the country.

This is meant to create a similar situation Ukraine has faced and that has been successful in converting the USA’s Trump Administration closer to Russia’s side, and in this conflict, could lead to the USA being closer to Serbia’s side.

Croatians are largely more successful because they seek the rule of law and Western traditions.

But, it also hurts them in information warfare and can weaken Croatian interests abroad because the West often seeks the rule of law and truth over their own interests.

And because Bosnia and Herzegovina is overseen by neutral arbiters of all sides, Croatia’s effective side is the Western world through the EU, USA, and other entities like NATO. 

Serbians’ best friends in Russia, and the Bosniaks’ best friends in Turkey and the Islamic world are very different. They would rather lie in the court of public opinion so they can achieve their interests.

And worse yet, is how many defenders of the Western world have fallen to propaganda against their own countries and religion and now appear as either pro-Russia or pro-Islam in public opinion.

This means that Croatians often have to fight for themselves as President Zoran Milanović stated in his inaugural address last month: “Who, besides us, cares about the Croats in our friendly, neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina? Who, if not us, will stand up for their threatened political rights and defend their status as a constituent people? No one will take on that ungrateful task in our place – it is our historical, constitutional, and above all, moral obligation.”

Thus, it is imperative for Croatians around the world to get ahead of the ensuing information warfare that will come if the Serbians or Bosniaks go through with their plans.

The diaspora have to be prepared to contact their representatives in the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South America, and across Europe to tell them the true situation on the ground, to act as volunteer litigators on behalf of the Croatians of Bosnia and Herzegovina who have been living there for thousands of years.

Right wing politicians need to be made aware that Croatians are strong Christians of the Western tradition, while left wing politicians need to be made aware that Croatians have never voted in Nazi or other fascist organizations in freely held elections and were actually a majority for the resistance that served the Allies.

Lawmakers need to be made aware across party lines that Croatians in Bosnia and Herzegovina are not like the Serbians, and only seek a restructuring of the country to close loopholes the Dayton Agreement was meant to close in the first place.

We have to learn the mistakes of Ukraine and control the narrative to show the world that Croatians are the ethnicity most aligned with the values most familiar to them.

The region is constantly in an information battle and there are many who constantly work to defend Croatians in Bosnia and Herzegovina on X (Twitter), in main stream media, and other sources. Their efforts should be applauded. 

But, with the conflict appearing more hot, and with more EU troops being placed in the nation, more work needs to be done and prominent voices in the diaspora and Croatia itself need to rise up.

No one wants a war, but if one was to ever ensue, we need to make sure the world understands the conflict from Croatia’s perspective as we know Bosniaks and Serbians will have their own state-backers telling their’s.

Even with no war, a restructing of the country via its electoral system, its administered divisions, or other topics must include both internal Croatian arguments, but also external Croatian-aligned representatives.

If lines are redrawn or laws are re-written, it will most likely include outside representation which Croatians need to have equal representation in.

This can only be done with your help in convincing representatives is diaspora nations that Croatians in Bosnia and Herzegovina are good people and matter.