What Croatia’s population will look like in 25 years

Zagreb

By 2050, Croatia will have 2.1 million ethnic Croats and 2.2 million people from non-European countries, predicts demographer Tado Jurić.

The professor at the Catholic University of Croatia shared his insights during a recent interview with Večernji list, discussing how migration and integration will shape the country’s future.

A nation of emigration and change

Croatia has a long history of emigration, dating back to the 19th century and continuing through the gastarbeiter era of the 1960s and 70s.

However, in the past, Croats from Bosnia and Herzegovina helped fill the demographic gaps. Now, with declining birth rates and continued emigration, the population is shrinking rapidly.

Unlike in the past, the new wave of migration to Croatia is from countries with no historical cultural ties. While Slovenia, for example, has just 3% of its foreign workforce from non-European countries, in Croatia, this number is 50%.

Integration challenges and identity concerns

Jurić warns that Croatia is experiencing uncontrolled immigration, particularly from Nepal, India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines.

Unlike European migrants, integrating workers from these countries is far more challenging. Without proper strategies, Croatia risks social separation and ghettoisation, similar to issues seen in Western Europe.

“The biggest problem is that Croatia has one of the most liberal labour markets in the EU, attracting large numbers of foreign workers,” Jurić explains. “Germany, with 85 million people, takes in 25 times fewer workers from third countries than Croatia.”

Unlike Slovenia, which requires migrants to learn the language, Croatia has no such conditions, making it an attractive destination. Jurić stresses that while economic factors are important, the preservation of culture and national identity should also be a priority.

Birth rates and the future of Croatia

For Croatia’s population to remain stable, every woman of childbearing age would need to have 4.2 children—an impossible scenario given the current birth rate of 1.5.

Meanwhile, around 40,000 Croats emigrate each year, while only 10,000 return.

Jurić highlights the stark reality: “800,000 Croats would need to return to maintain the current demographic balance, but no country has ever managed to bring back more than 15% of its emigrants.”

A call for strategic planning

The demographic trends indicate that by 2050, Croatia will be equally split between ethnic Croats and migrants from third countries. The country faces a crucial decision: to ignore the changes or to develop a clear strategy for integration.

Jurić warns against both radical panic and blind acceptance, advocating instead for a rational and structured approach. “We need to ensure that Croatia remains a country where everyone can live peacefully, while also preserving its cultural and national identity.”